I’ve seen a lot of coronavirus content over the past few weeks but I haven’t seen many articles that break everything down in a way that is fact-based, not over-sensationalized, and geared for travelers. So I did some research and put together this article that I believe presents the facts objectively and should help give some people some reassurance on what to expect when it comes to the coronavirus and travel.

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Coronavirus overview

The first step to take is to get a grasp on the facts just so you know what you’re dealing with.

Here are some facts taken from the Center for Disease Control.

The actual virus is “SARS-CoV-2” and the disease it causes is “coronavirus disease 2019” (abbreviated “COVID-19”).

COVID-19 likely originated from bats which is the same animal that the similar virus MERS-CoV came from (first reported in Saudi Arabia in 2012).

Based on what we know so far, COVID-19 likely came out of a large seafood and live animal market in Wuhan, China (a port city of 11 million people) at the end of 2019 and within a couple of weeks made its way to nearby countries like Japan.

Reported illnesses have ranged from mild symptoms to severe illness and death.

The following symptoms may appear 2-14 days after exposure:

• • Fever
  • Cough
  • Shortness of breath

The CDC thinks it is likely that widespread transmission will occur in the US and it is likely that this virus will cause a pandemic. Yes, we are probably on our way to a pandemic.

The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most severe pandemic in recent history but in 2009 we saw the H1N1  influenza pandemic (swine flu), so it’s not like it’s been 100 years since the last pandemic.

In the event of a pandemic, here’s what the CDC says may happen:

Mass gatherings may be sparsely attended or postponed. Public health and healthcare systems may become overloaded, with elevated rates of hospitalizations and deaths. Other critical infrastructure, such as law enforcement, emergency medical services, and sectors of the transportation industry may also be affected. Healthcare providers and hospitals may be overwhelmed.

So, not going to lie — that sounds kind of scary but I think it’s worth remembering that we’re not dealing with something with unprecedented spread and fatality rates.

Scientists estimate how efficiently a disease is transmitted between people by calculating a number known as “R0,” pronounced “R-nought.” (Probably sounds familiar if you’ve seen Contagion.)

The COVID-19 has been estimated to be between 1.4 (World Health Organization) and 3.5, so this means one sick person would be likely to infect 1.4 to 3.5 people.

Compare that range to the R0 for polio and smallpox which are in the 5 to 7 range and measles — one of the most contagious diseases ever to exist — which has an estimated R0 of 12 to 18.

So yes COVID-19 is pretty contagious but a good distance away from being a super contagious disease like measles, especially if the 1.4 number is accurate.

It’s worth noting that the 1918 influenza pandemic had an R0 value of 1.47 to 2.27.

And as for severity, it may not be quite as bad as you might think.

Data so far suggests that most COVID-19 illness is mild and a report out of China suggests serious illness occurs only in 16% of cases.

(Note that “mild” could include pretty severe flu like symptoms.)

The CDC also reports that globally about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died and others report a 1% rate (as a comparison the flu usually kills far less than 1% of those infected). This number is evolving though because it is still very early to know the fatality rate for the coronavirus.

H1N1 had a fatality rate of .02% while MERS was 34% and SARS 9.6%. So a 1% to 3% chance of death is noticeably higher than swine flu but not nearly as scary as other similar viruses. It’s very similar to the 1918 pandemic rate of 2.5%.

It’s good to remember that the vast majority of people pull through without major issues. Those who struggle are usually older people and people of all ages with severe underlying health conditions — like heart disease, lung disease and diabetes.

If you look at fatality rates by age you’ll see the fatality rate was “1.3% in 50-somethings, 0.4% in 40-somethings, and 0.2% in people 10 to 39.” This is a notable difference from the pandemic of 1918.

Also, children seem to be less affected — a recent analysis looked at more than 72,000 confirmed cases from China and of the 1,023 deaths recorded in China at the time, no child was among them.

I’m not saying that the R0 values and mortality rates for the coronavirus are not startling.

They are.

A lot of people have and are likely going to lose their life to this disease. But for the average 10 to 40 year-old without underlying health issues, the risk of death caused by the coronavirus is maybe 1 in 500 (or even lower).

So that’s everything summarized in a nutshell but what do these things mean for travelers right now?

The first thing to consider is where are you going and how are you traveling?

You probably want to know if there has been reported cases of the virus in the location you were traveling to. Here, is an official list of all the countries where coronavirus has been found.

You should also take your research a little bit further and see what the warning levels are for the country you want to travel to. You can find those risk levels here but for convenience sake here they are:

Risk Assessment Level for COVID-19:

• Widespread sustained (ongoing) transmission and restrictions on entry to the United States
• Widespread sustained (ongoing) transmission
• Sustained (ongoing) community transmission
• Risk of limited community transmission

(Community transmission means that you get a virus from someone that you cannot trace it back to.)

Keep in mind that if you travel to some of the higher risk countries you will be forced to quarantine for 14 days when you return. You may not be able to complete your travel itinerary until the 14-day period has elapsed.

Also, some countries might require quarantine for all people entering the country. For example, Israel is requiring a 14-day quarantine for anyone entering the country.

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How can you avoid infection?

If you decided to leave your house then you need to think about avoiding infection at all times.

Dr. John Torres, a medical correspondent for NBC News who practices emergency medicine and Dr. Joseph Fair, a virologist, epidemiologist and global outbreak responder, say you just need to do these three things to minimize your risk: