Sports has taken a huge and unprecedented hit from the virus plaguing the world right now.

We’ve seen the Olympic games postponed for the first time in modern history so that the 2020 games will now take place in 2021.

Every major professional sports league has been put on hold and many are doubtful that some leagues like the NBA will be able to salvage their season. Even the MLB is going to face some serious challenges with compressing its schedule if they are to resume games.

But now some experts even think that football season will not be happening, possibly not for college or the NFL.

TV college football analyst Kirk Herbstreit said he would be “shocked” if the NFL or college football season is played this year.

Warren K. Zola, a respected expert on sports law at Boston College’s Carroll School of Management also stated “I am not trying to be overly pessimistic, but I’m doubtful we’re going to have a 2020 football season, NFL or college.”

These are not medical experts but they are experts within sports and so I think their outlook on things is something that we should consider when trying to gauge whether or not football will happen in 2020.

What is China doing?

When trying to figure out when we might resume sports it is a good idea to look at what China has done.

China is set to resume the Chinese Super League (soccer) in just a couple of weeks on April 16.

The illness first onset in early December in China and so it took them about four months to get to the point where now they are comfortable with resuming sports.

But here’s the thing about China.

First, we don’t actually know what is happening for sure with their transmission rates because there has been so much shady activity.

However, we do know that they recently announced that they will be ending their lockdown so I think it’s safe to say that they at least feel good about their containment measures regardless of what their numbers may truly be.

But China implemented super stringent lockdowns in their country.

Many people were limited on the amount of time they could go outside and everybody was forced to wear a mask. They also tracked the residents utilizing apps in an effort to keep those likely to be sick from spreading the disease.

And now, when they have opened up attractions like the Great Wall of China, they have implemented screening measures like taking temperatures, checking health status with the app, deploying facemasks, etc.

So when they reopen sports, I have a feeling that they will be implementing similar procedures to mitigate the risk of carriers spreading disease in their stadiums.

In the US, we have not implemented anything on the level of China and doing so would most likely not be possible in our country just because we are such a different culture.

I also don’t think that we could implement the same type of stringent procedures for admission to stadiums like China will likely do.

And that’s just dealing with risks to spectators.

Football teams are huge and involve massive staffs.

All of the physical contact during practices, workouts, locker room interactions, and games would put athletes at huge risk. 

Then there is the problem with timing.

In the United States, many states are still in the early stages of the disease spreading and we are still unsure about what the curves will look like for different regions. 

Four months from today would be the beginning of football season in terms of training and gearing up for the preseason.

At that point, there will likely be treatments available but there will definitely not be a vaccine by that time that is being widely distributed beyond test subjects.

Therefore, it is not unreasonable to think that attending/playing in games will still be a major health risk. 

So I think football is going to be facing the same issues that other leagues are currently facing.

Can you remove the risk from players?

I don’t see how you can at this stage.

You would have to test athletes on a continual basis and remove carriers entirely from meetings and practices for weeks at a time. And if those carriers had contact with others, you would have to quarantine those as well. In some cases, that could be virtually an entire team or staff.

Rosters would have huge holes to fill. Head coaches and assistants would have to sit out from time to time. And there will always be the lingering risk that a carrier has not been detected. The first time that a new athlete tests positive after a game, entire teams may have to quarantine.

So personally, I think these experts are probably correct that football season will not happen this year. 

Maybe this disease will be reduced so far down in a few months that there is no risk of exponential spreading but I just don’t see that happening.

We will probably loosen up on certain things in terms of social distancing but I don’t think we will be so loosened up that 100,000 spectators will be able to cram into close quarters.

And even if exponential spreading is not an issue, how would you establish the acceptable risk level for athletes?

I just don’t think it’s going to work this fall. 

H/T